3 keys to regain confidence

Economic growth rebound does not change the trend down



Fourth-quarter GDP data released, the growth rate reached 6.8%, seems to be upturned to the economic growth in 2016 to draw a perfect end. To this end, I discussed with Zhongtai Securities chief adviser Wang Xiaodong and macro researcher Sheng Xu, and found that investment, consumption and export data are not as optimistic as the total amount of data released, which means that the downward pressure on the economy in 2017 will be even greater.
The traditional stimulus crossbow at the end, the downward trend in growth
2016 GDP in the fourth quarter to achieve a certain growth, but the main recovery is still driven by real estate, the other sub-items have different degrees of decline, and in December as the ending of the month, the performance is not satisfactory: Industrial and investment shows the economic supply and demand The output of various key industrial products is declining, only the recovery of crude oil, nonferrous metals, etc., shows that the traditional role of economic stimulus has slowed down.
The growth rate of fixed assets in the fourth quarter was only 6.9% (7.3% of the previous value), and the growth rate of fixed investment in the fourth quarter was only 6.9% (the former value was 7.3%). The quarterly growth rate of real estate rebounded from 5.6% to 8.8% after two quarters of decline, becoming the most important support for the economy in the fourth quarter. The growth of other investment accelerated year-on-year.
December real estate investment growth in nominal terms in November after a brief stepped back after the rise again, the sales side due to the impact of control policies continue to decline, but the new construction and construction progress have been accelerated. Infrastructure investment in nominal growth fell sharply by 8.6 percentage points to 5.2%, as the most important factor in investment decline. Manufacturing is still driven by a slowdown in investment in real estate and infrastructure that started in early 2016 and is expected to continue briefly for investment.
Consumption in the fourth quarter, the actual growth rate of 9.1% throughout the year continued to fall
The nominal growth rate picked up in December, but the actual growth rate excluding prices was unchanged from November. Due to the impact of changes in purchase tax policy, the consumption of automobiles and other optional consumption may be dragged down in the future. The proportion and growth rate of consumption of essential consumer goods in the overall consumption are good, but the supporting role of the economy will also be limited. Overall, as an important growth momentum in 2016, real estate has been unable to support the year's steady economic growth, regulatory policies difficult to shift, the economy must find new impetus to increase reform may become the theme of economic growth in 2017.
Consumption and investment from the actual level of view, the fourth quarter consumption growth of only 9.1%, while investment has been less than 7.0%, since 2005, a record low.
The actual consumption and investment growth are weakened, China and Thailand Wang Xiaodong for the map
Export advantage has not been improved due to devaluation
China's export growth in 2016 decreased by 2%, imports increased by 0.6% (RMB denominated), the exchange rate depreciation of the role of promoting exports has not yet been reflected, but because of corporate financing costs, labor costs, raw material cost synergies rise, foreign trade advantage has weakened. But even so, textile and other labor-intensive industries still achieve a certain growth, China's export competitiveness is still strong. We observe a shrinking processing trade, in addition to cost reasons, may also be caused by the outflow of foreign exchange through the channel.
Import data growth is undoubtedly the main factor in this round of small cycle to pick up the pull, due to economic recovery situation there is a process of gradual confirmation of the year's imports show a quarterly trend of rising trend; crude oil, iron ore and other commodities demand Soaring and price rebound is one of the important factors for the growth of China's import scale. "Recession-style surplus" situation has reversed, the dislocation of domestic and foreign demand for trade surplus may make the downturn in the short term become the norm.
According to our analysis of the profitability, price and demand of various industries, the transmission of the economy has gradually shifted from the upstream to the middle and lower reaches. In addition, the intensity of the small-cycle pick-up has weakened, so the domestic demand may be more concentrated in the first half In the middle reaches of products, crude oil, iron ore and other commodities dependency will also be reduced, the next period of time the scale of imports or reduced.
Export growth in the fourth quarter was -5.2% (-7.7% in 2016 vs. -2.9% in 2015), narrowing from the previous three quarters.
China and Thailand macro Wang Xiaodong for
The future uncertainty of China's foreign trade situation from the United States, Trump's New Deal infrastructure investment plan will expand US domestic demand, but the protection of trade policies may lead to our country's export trade has been damaged. Although the actual results may be lower than expected, but we still need to pay close attention to the impact of the New Deal and assessment.
Monetary policy in 2017 or will loose when tight
We believe that in order to stabilize growth in 2017, fiscal policy will be more active in the real estate development investment growth down the case, this without any suspense. So, what will happen to monetary policy? As foreign exchange controls were strengthened, the independence of monetary policy would be strengthened, even if the exchange rate could be relaxed, according to Mundell's three impossible theorems.
Sure enough, we do not expect, according to Reuters quoted sources, the five major commercial banks on the 20th allowed to cut the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point. In this regard, the Thai fixed-income team evaluation is as follows:
① the first phase down the standard, the release of funds of about 650 billion yuan: five deposits from the line of view, the deposit will be reduced by 1%, about 650 billion yuan of funds released to deal with the prerequisite for the Spring Festival, tax payment and deposit And so on.
② is intended to maintain stability, not loose signal: the reserve reduction measures have been implemented recently, the central bank to stabilize the traditional financial needs before the Spring Festival tension, expression long-lost goodwill, but with the open market operation, the need to emphasize or Is loose before the holiday, not lasting. December or even two weeks before 17 years in the central economic work conference clear deleveraging, anti-risk targets, sea events and the 17-year financial statements included in the broad definition of credit, acceptance of MPA prudential framework for a series of liquidity impact Under the influence of the event, the inter-bank repurchase and lending and exchange repo rates are rising sharply, triggering the stampede of the bond market, while in December 16 the month the open market still insist on a gradual net withdrawal of 145 billion yuan. In contrast, the open market this week with a 1.13 trillion single-week maximum net volume, operating direction and attitude changes clear down the standard operation, not loose and the policy shift signal.
③ postganglionic liquidity tightening worrying, limited good on the bond market: the cut-off period for a clear 28 days, just cover the Spring Festival period. From the February point of view, the expiration of the open market and the MLF withdrawn from circulation of funds were 1.49 trillion and 205 billion yuan, so the financial pressure in February of worrying, so the prospective investment for the bond market is limited.
In the short term, the expectation of continuous easing is unrealistic. However, under the backdrop of the weak real estate sales and investment outlook and the declining trend of key economic indicators, especially in the control of foreign exchange capital projects, , Even in the United States to raise interest rates in the external environment, monetary policy or camera choice, the more sustained release of loose goodwill, but also can reasonably expect.
Three thought-provoking figures
Infrastructure investment fell sharply, other investments in the low hovering (both the actual level of the estimate), China and Thailand macro Wang Xiaodong
Despite a slight rebound in real estate investment in the fourth quarter, from 5.6% in the third quarter to 8.8%, real estate investment rose only 9.0% (10.0% in the previous quarter), setting a new record low. Estimated real estate investment growth from the second quarter of this year after the fall, still does not rule out the possibility of negative growth throughout the year.
In China, the real estate price changes ahead of the characteristics of sales is also very significant, at least "the amount of price rise with the total down." At present, the price increase has obviously turned down, the estimated increase in sales inflection point in close proximity, and investment will naturally fall.
Relying on real estate investment alone is difficult to support, China and Thailand macro Wang Xiaodong for
If you examine the "financial institutions, loan-weighted interest rate", "individual housing loans" and "general loans" relative level, can perfectly explain the price of each inflection point (the end of 2008 has data).
This is actually a policy-oriented full response: interest rates relative to the level of increase reflects the policy behind the tightening, indicating that mortgage interest rates to reduce the rate of reduction, two sets of support, foreign census register and other package control policy began to escalate.
2017 property market regulation policy on real estate investment is very unfavorable, China and Thailand macro Wang Xiaodong for



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